The divergence is based largely on better access to COVID-19 vaccines and continued fiscal support in advanced economies, while emerging markets face difficulties on both fronts, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook.

“Close to 40 percent of the population in advanced economies has been fully vaccinated, compared with 11 percent in emerging market economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income developing countries,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist, said during a news conference.

“Faster-than-expected vaccination rates and return to normalcy have led to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and renewed waves of COVID-19 cases in some countries, notably India, have led to downgrades,” she said.

The IMF significantly raised its forecasts for the US, which it now expects to grow at 7.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022 — up 0.6 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively, from the forecasts in April. The projections assume the US Congress will approve President Joe Biden’s roughly US$4 trillion in proposed infrastructure, education and family support spending largely as envisioned by the White House.

Positive spillovers from the US spending plans, along with expected progress in COVID-19 vaccination rates, are boosting the IMF’s 2022 global growth forecast to 4.9 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from April.

The IMF gave its biggest upgrade to the United Kingdom, lifting its 2021 growth by 1.7 percentage points to 7.0 percent, reflecting better adaptation to COVID-19 restrictions than previously anticipated.

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