Although Jokowi himself has signaled an imminent change of guard in the TNI, House of Representatives Deputy Speaker Sufmi Dasco said the House leaders have yet to receive the President’s letter on the matter. Jokowi has also kept his preference a secret, but in compliance with the 2004 TNI Law, the President’s choices are limited to Army Chief of Staff Gen. Dudung Abdurachman, Navy Chief of Staff Adm. Yudo Margono and Air Force Chief of Staff Marshall Fadjar Prasetyo.

However, of all the three military chiefs of staff, Yudo has been making waves in public discourse as the most-possible option for Jokowi’s third TNI commander considering the fact that the President has yet to give the Navy an opportunity to take charge. Yudo was also a close second in 2021 as then-TNI commander Air Chief Marshall Hadi Tjahjanto’s replacement when pressures mounted on Jokowi to give Yudo a shot in order to maintain the tradition of rotating the leadership of TNI among its three services, ensuring a sense of equality among its rank and file. The President eventually went to give the Army a second chance by choosing Andika.

This year, Yudo is going up against the Army once more amid speculations the President is being tempted to hand the TNI top job to Dudung for political reasons ahead of the 2024 elections. Like Andika, Dudung comes from an elite background. His father-in-law was the late Maj. Gen. (ret.) Cholid Ghozali who was on the supervisory board of Baitul Muslimin Indonesia, the Indonesian Party of Struggle’s (PDI-P) umbrella organization to reach Muslim voters.

While he was a Military Academy governor in 2020, Dudung also caught the attention of PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri after building a statue of founding president Sukarno in the academy. 

Dudung gained prominence for cracking down the now-defunct hardline Islam Defenders Front (FPI) during his time as the Jakarta Military commander in late 2020. However, due to his controversy in recent months after a video of him seen as ordering Army soldiers to cyberbully PDI-P lawmaker Effendi Simbolon in response to his criticism against the military, civil-society groups have demanded the President to appoint Yudo as the next TNI chief.

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Many have said that Jokowi’s promise to turn Indonesia into a global maritime axis should be enough reason to pick Yudo. Not to mention, Indonesia has many challenges and threats in its waters since the Ukraine-Russia war as well as simmering regional tension due to competition of global powers in South China Sea and Indo-Pacific area. All the geopolitical phenomena should justify the country’s need to strengthen its naval power and let the Navy take charge.

What’s more

It seems that Yudo is aware he cannot solely rely on Jokowi’s blessing. In the past year, Yudo has made some approaches to realize his dream. Among the prominent figures he has approached is PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri.5  On June 20, Yudo invited Megawati to attend a ceremony to mark the maiden service of a Navy corvette named after her father, KRI Bung Karno. Yudo also invited Megawati on Aug. 11 as a keynote speaker on a discussion on Javanese-heroine Ratu Kalinyamat at KRI Dewaruci training ship, where he praised Megawati for her support in developing Navy capabilities despite not having a military background.

It is speculated that Yudo is following in Dudung’s footsteps in trying to impress Megawati. Yudo lost to Andika in 2021 despite Hadi’s support because of his infective lobbying of Jokowi’s inner circle. This time around, it seems that Yudo is aware he will lose again if he simply waits for news from the State Palace because in addition to his lesser popularity compared to Dudung, Yudo also has made less of a contribution to the powers that be.

Meanwhile, Dudung has been touring Islamic boarding schools since early this year to further increase his popularity and support base. He also came up with the idea to recruit enlisted men and non-commissioned officers from the boarding schools.

What we’ve heard

Several sources in the House said that so far Yudo has gained an upper-hand in the race for the TNI chief post due to personal support from Andika.

Two sources, one of whom is close to Yudo, said that Andika started attending Navy activities with Yudo. One of them is the embedding of the brevet and the inauguration of Andika as an honorary member of the Marine Corps. Yudo himself pinned the purple beret to Andika.

According to the same source, the opportunity for the Army and the Air Force chiefs remains but is slim due to the rotation tradition. “This is the Navy’s turn to lead the TNI,” said the source.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. Auditors find discrepancies in budget for reserve component
2. Jokowi and the G-20 presidency – the reluctant global leader
3. Court allows ministers running for president to remain in office

Business and Economy

1. Seven years late, TV analog switches off on Nov. 2, yet three TV groups disagree
2. Co-firing spearheads PLN’s efforts to go green
3. Govt announces tobacco excise rise early to prevent unrest ahead of election
4. Indonesia’s economy grew 5.72 percent in the face of future downturn

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