Overview

Opinion polls on the 2024 presidential election show that Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan is among the most popular public figures, but his nomination remains clouded by uncertainty. His chances will further narrow after October, when he steps down as governor, effectively losing the public stage for his presidential bid.

As the presidential hopefuls’ nomination remain in the hands of political parties, Anies’ best and likely only hope is the National Democrat (NasDem) party. But there are two obstacles to overcome first. One is that NasDem must form an alliance with other political parties to meet the presidential threshold, which is beyond his control. The other is that Anies has to convince NasDem and its alliance partners that he is their best bet for winning votes in the legislative elections.

The 53-year Jakarta governor is getting there, albeit slowly, and he still has some way to go. NasDem announced this month it had formed an alliance with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party (PD). Together they have the right to nominate their common presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

The Election Law stipulates that political parties must have won more than 25 percent of votes in the 2019 elections or more than 20 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives to be eligible to nominate a candidate. Parties may pool their 2019 votes or their House seats to meet the threshold to name a candidate.

NasDem has named Anies as one of the three figures it is considering. The other two are Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who is also popular, and Indonesian Military chief Gen. Andika Perkasa. Ganjar has said he would only run as a candidate of his party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Andika may have presidential ambitions, but his low electability in most polls makes him an unlikely choice.

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Barring any surprises, it is almost certain that NasDem will pick Anies. But it still has to convince the PKS and the Democrats to go along with its choice. This would be subject to negotiations between the three parties. The PKS may be easier to convince, as it supported Anies’ 2016 gubernatorial bid, but the Democrats are anxious to nominate their chairman, Agus Harimurti, a son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Anies has no political affiliations, and the Constitution does not allow independent candidates. But he has historical connections with NasDem that is not widely known to the public. He read out the declaration that launched NasDem as a moral political movement in 2010. But these ties loosened when NasDem became a political party in 2011 and Anies, political scientist, began pursuing an independent political career.

Anies was campaign spokesman for Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in 2014. He articulated Jokowi’s campaign ideas, and for this he was appointed as the education minister after Jokowi won the election. Their relationship did not last long, however, and Anies lost his Cabinet post 20 months later, in June 2016. He recovered quickly, contesting and winning the Jakarta gubernatorial election the following year.

What’s more

Founded and chaired by media mogul Surya Paloh, NasDem has also had a phenomenal rise, winning 9 percent of the nationwide vote in 2019, only its second election, to become the fifth largest party in the country. In 2014, it won 6.74 percent of the vote. Now, NasDem is aiming to be counted among the top three parties in 2024, challenging the dominance of the PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra. MetroTV, the most watched news broadcaster owned by Paloh, is already drumming up support with nightly telecasts on Paloh and NasDem’s activities.

The challenge for most political parties in the run-up 2024 is to find a candidate that will win the presidential race, but more importantly, win votes for the party in the simultaneous legislative elections.

NasDem has no one popular enough within its ranks to stand a chance at winning. But then, neither do its allies, the PKS and the Democrats. At 43, Harimurti is too young and lacks a public service record to be considered a serious contender, although he could make a good running mate for Anies.

Given the presidential nomination threshold and the news on electoral alliances in recent weeks, we could see four candidates in 2024.

The PDI-P is automatically eligible to nominate a candidate, though party patron and chair Megawati Soekarnoputri is facing a dilemma who to pick. The choice is between her daughter Puan Maharani who, despite being the House speaker, has low electability, and the more popular Ganjar.

Gerindra has joined forces with the National Awakening Party (PKB), which should be enough to nominate founder-chairman Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister. Prabowo ran and lost against Jokowi in both 2014 and 2019, but shortly after losing the 2019 election, he made the decisive move to accept Jokowi’s appointment as the defense minister. He has used his official post as a platform for his 2024 bid, and now ranks among the most popular potential candidates.

The fourth alliance is made up of Golkar, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP). They have no feasible candidate from within their ranks, and will be looking to back an outsider who can help them win legislative votes.

As the formal registration of candidates with the General Election Commission does not open until October 2023, the scenario can still change, including the current alliances falling apart, so it is still too premature to predict who will be in the running in 2024.

There is little that Anies can do except wait and hope that NasDem or another party, will tout him as their candidate when the time comes.

What we’ve heard

A number of politicians said that Anies Baswedan would run as a presidential candidate from a NasDem-led coalition because in various meetings with NasDem executives, party chairman Surya Paloh always insisted on nominating the Jakarta governor.

A source said that former vice president Jusuf Kalla also throws his weight behind Anies’ candidacy. In a meeting with former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), Kalla encouraged SBY to order his Democratic Party to form a coalition with NasDem. This source said JK realized that SBY’s relationship with Paloh is strained. “Many of Surya Paloh’s businesses did not develop during the SBY administration and JK is trying to mediate while looking for a way for Anies,” said the source.

Kalla has been the mentor and sponsor that helped Anies win the Jakarta election in 2017. A number of sources said Kalla is also one of Anies’ financiers ahead of the 2024 election. Currently, a number of people close to Kalla are also in Anies’ circle. They include president commissioner of TransJakarta Sudirman Said, who is the secretary-general of the Indonesian Red Cross which Kalla leads. Another name is Wijayanto Samirin, formerly special economic staff of Kalla when he was the vice president in 2014-2019. Currently, Wijayanto is a member of the Jakarta governor’s Team for the Acceleration of Development (TGUPP).

In addition to Kalla’s circle, Anies has involved former trade minister Tom lembong to formulate an economic platform to be offered in the 2024 election. Anies has also named Ahok’s former special staff Sunny Tanuwidjaja his political adviser. Sunny is involved in the Jaya Mandala Forum which discusses government policies. Anies also seeks advice from political observers Hendri Satrio and Philip Vermonte on political aspects and electoral surveys.

Anies’ stands a great chance of contesting the presidential race although there is no agreement yet between NasDem and its prospective coalition partners. The Democrats are one of the parties that Nasdem has explored through a series of meetings between Paloh, Democrats chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono and SBY. “It is at this point that JK plays a role,” said the source, referring to Kalla.

A source said Paloh insists on nominating Anies because of an internal survey found his coattail effect especially in Sumatra, Sulawesi and Kalimantan could help NasDem win the legislative election. 

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

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