There are not many small countries that have disproportionate impacts on Indonesia.

Singapore, with a population 4 million, obviously tops the list as a major investor and trading partner. Events in Timor Leste, population 900,000, severely damaged Indonesia’s international reputation as a result of turmoil in the wake of the referendum of 1999. Brunei, population 200,000, unintentionally rocked the boat when an innocent donation to Aceh from the sultan of Brunei created a political crisis that led to the downfall of then-president Abdurrahman Wahid. Norway, population 10 million, launched an initiative that prompted an Indonesian moratorium on deforestation.

Hence, a very short list. Countries that have big impacts on Indonesia are usually major or middle powers: China, the United States, Japan, Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore (the exception), Saudi Arabia, India and members of the European Union, among others.

Enter the United Arab Emirates, bringing along a streak of surprises.

Indonesia had been eyeing the UAE for some time. For years, government officials and Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) executives had visited Dubai and Abu Dhabi to court UAE investors but the results were modest at best. Indonesian diplomats found the UAE a tough nut to crack. Lavish diplomatic niceties seldom converted to economic “deliverables”.

For Indonesia, investment-wise, neighboring Qatar was much more on the map than the UAE.

This picture has dramatically changed in the last two years. Since 2019, there has been a significant spike in Jakarta-Abu Dhabi relations, and the speed and scope of their expansion is rather astounding. Indeed, with all the talk about Jakarta’s evolving relations with the US, China, India, the UK, the EU and others, I would say Indonesia-UAE relations are a big diplomatic surprise in Indonesia’s present-day foreign policy.

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