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China the peacemaker?
In the same week that the US financial authorities had again to fend off a potential crisis from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and reports that tension has risen between President Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymir Zelensky, especially over the sabotage of the Nord Stream II pipeline, China scored a massive political victory in the Middle East.
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This handout image provided by Nournews agency shows the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Shamkhani (right) shaking hands with the Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party Wang Yi (center) during a meeting with Saudi Arabia's National Security adviser and Minister of State Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (left) in Beijing on March 10, 2023. Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore ties and to reopen respective diplomatic missions after talks in China, state media in both countries reported on March 10, 2023, seven years after relations were severed. (AFP/AFP)
It must have been a terrible week for United States President Joe Biden.
In the same week that the US financial authorities had again to fend off a potential crisis from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and reports that tension has risen between President Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymir Zelensky, especially over the sabotage of the Nord Stream II pipeline, China scored a massive political victory in the Middle East.
No one thought that it would take less than three years for China to make a major strategic inroad into the Middle East since the US abandoned the region through its hasty retreat from Afghanistan.
The deal that China brokered to stage a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which seemingly came out of nowhere, certainly caught everyone by surprise.
Even if we can discount the strategic and probably geopolitical gains, a truce between a major Sunni power and the key Shi'a nation in one of the most volatile regions comes with a major and rich symbolism that could reverberate throughout the Muslim world.
And for idealists who criticized the Iran-Saudi detente as being motivated only by economic pragmatism from everyone involved in making the deal, realists could certainly argue that China’s peacemaking model may be the shape of things to come, that in order to achieve a goal the incentives should be tangible like the access to oil and gas or preferential trade, rather than the lofty ideals that the West at times has imposed on others.
China after all is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, while Saudi Arabia is one of China’s largest suppliers of oil.
As for Iran, after years being on the receiving end of the devastating economic sanctions imposed by the US, taking up an offer from China would certainly be a no-brainer. Especially if the proposal to have a truce with Saudi Arabia comes with an offer of US$400 billion in investment.
And if the exchange for the investment is supplies of oil and fuel, then it is a win-win for everyone.
Even for those who are not directly engaged in the deal, the impact could be immense.
The deal certainly can change the game in the conflict in Yemen, a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which has gone on for eight years and has been devastating for the Yemenis. On Wednesday, the United Nations Security Council began talks on the possible impact of the Iran-Saudi detente toward attaining peace in Yemen.
On the heels of the Iran-Saudi detente, China is now looking to do the same in Ukraine, with President Xi Jinping planning to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin next week and preparing an online summit with Zelensky later in the week.
It remains to be seen if Xi can emulate the Middle East success story in this ongoing war, but the eyes of the world are now certainly on China with its new role as a peacemaker, a manifestation of Xi’s Global Security Initiative outlined last year.
In places where very little progress has been made toward conflict resolution, such as Myanmar or the Korean Peninsula, China can certainly do more.
