Put simply, Japan is now openly anticipating a global war while assuring ASEAN that the region will remain a priority for Japan no matter what.

There will be objections, especially from its former colonies, especially China, and, to a much lesser degree, South Korea. The two Asian economic powers’ refusal is likely to stem from their traumatic experience of enduring Japanese militarism in the past.  

This time ASEAN countries may have to readjust themselves with Japan’s possible strategic shift, which perceives the regional grouping as a lucrative trade and economic partner no more, but as a key player in the Asia-Pacific outlook. A bold position will put the 10-member bloc in a central role to counterbalance the growing rivalry among big powers in the Asia-Pacific region, especially the South China Sea. The question is how far ASEAN can strike a fine balance between the positive and negative impacts of the rivalry.

I am pretty sure Japan will remain one of the most-important economic and sociocultural powers in the region. ASEAN has strong faith in Japan’s commitment to delivering its promises.

I drew the conclusion after following Kishida’s foreign policy remarks since he came to power in October 2021, including his marvelously choreographed appearances as a keynote speaker at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June last year, his press statement at a Cabinet meeting in December and his public lecture at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Studies in Baltimore, Maryland, the United States, in January of this year.

What is next for Fukuda’s doctrine, which is still often asserted by Japanese leaders, including Kishida, in their public statements, in the context of Japan-ASEAN relations?